23 February 2024, USD/JPY
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen has been rising against the US dollar during the Asian session on Friday and so far seems to have broken a two-day losing streak, hitting a one-week low the previous day. The recent verbal intervention by Japanese authorities and ongoing geopolitical tensions proved to be the key factors that provided some support to the safe-haven yen. Significant appreciation still seems unlikely amid bets on a postponement of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plans to end ultra-soft policy, backed by data that the Japanese economy fell into a technical recession in the fourth quarter.
In contrast, the minutes of the FOMC meeting in late January showed that policymakers were in no hurry to cut interest rates amid stable inflation and a still resilient US economy. This continues to support rising US Treasury yields, which, along with the largely favorable macroeconomic data released on Thursday, could help the US Dollar consolidate the solid rebound from a near three-week low achieved overnight. The risk-off backdrop - as evidenced by the prolonged rally in global stock markets - could limit the yen's gains and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair lies to the upside.
Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly with Buy orders
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