14 February 2024, GBP/USD
Event to watch out for today:
09:00 EET GBP - CPI m/m
17:00 EET GBP - BoE Governor Bailey Speech
17:30 EET USD - EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
GBPUSD:
In the early hours of Asian trading on Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair weakened below the 1.2600 level. Investors will focus on the UK inflation data for January.
The US inflation data, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), exceeded expectations, with core CPI and core inflation rising 0.4% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively. The report highlights the upside risks to US core inflation and reduces the probability of a rate cut next month. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic stated that a rate cut in the upcoming months is improbable. He also expressed his belief that inflation will reach approximately 2% by the conclusion of 2024.
UK wage growth decelerated less than anticipated in Q4 2023, indicating that the Bank of England (BoE) should postpone interest rate cuts. On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics released data indicating that average earnings, excluding bonuses, increased by 6.2% YoY. This is a decrease from the upwardly revised 6.7% in the three months leading up to November, but it is still better than the anticipated 6.0%. Wages, including bonuses, decreased to 5.8% from 6.7% in the three months leading up to November, which is slightly higher than the market consensus of 5.6%.
Following the release of the labour market data, money markets estimated the probability of a first rate cut by the Bank of England at its June meeting to be 60%, down from 75%.
Trade recommendation: If the price consolidates below 1.2575 we sell
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