20 November 2023, GBP/USD
GBPUSD trading plan:
Britain is probably already in a recession after soaring interest rates and rising unemployment turned households more cautious about spending. A recession would be a headache for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, due to fight an election next year. A downturn could increase the chances of the Bank of England pivoting toward reducing interest rates, especially if inflation has come down sharply. It will be a close call between stagnation and a mild contraction, but the odds are tilted marginally in favor of the latter. The BoE has cut its UK growth forecast by 1% and the UK will fall into recession if interest rates are kept at 5.25%.
Investment idea: sell 1.2495 and take profit 1.2440.
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