28 March 2023, USD/JPY
USDJPY trading plan:
Pricing of swaps linked to scheduled Federal Reserve meetings now suggest that a quarter-point hike is more likely than not at the central bank’s next meeting in May. The rate on the contract tied to that gathering rose to around 4.96%, around 13 basis points above the current effective rate on fed funds, the benchmark targeted by the central bank. The Fed tends to move in increments of 25 basis points — or multiples thereof — so that suggests odds of more than 50% that it will hike. The most recent upgrading of odds came as short-end Treasury rates jumped amid a more upbeat outlook for US banks. The market has previously suggested more hikes from the Fed, but those expectations were largely wiped-out last week in the wake of the Fed’s latest decision, comments from Chair Jerome Powell and ongoing concern about the US financial system.
Investment idea: buy 130.05 and take profit 130.77.
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