12 August 2022, USD/JPY
USDJPY trading plan:
Officials at the Federal Reserve have warned the central bank was a long way from ending its tightening cycle. And a cycle of likely downgrades in earnings forecasts just got under way. Yet with funds so defensively positioned, even the slightest good news was enough to light up a rally. As gains snowballed, many skeptics may have been forced to jump in, or to at least reconsider where the market is in the cycle. Macro products, such as index and exchange-traded funds, dominated hedge fund buying. Net leverage, a measure of the group’s risk appetite that takes into account bullish versus bearish positions, is stuck in the 10th percentile of a one-year range. That means, there is a lot of room for money managers to gear up for more upside, if they’re willing. This is a positive signal for the US stock market and USDJPY, as assets are correlated.
Investment idea: buy 133.00 and take profit 133.66.
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