21 December 2021, GBP/USD
GBPUSD trading plan:
Bank of England to became the first G7 central bank into the great post-pandemic interest rate rise experiment. It will only take two more quarter point hikes next year to get back to where policy rates were before the pandemic and money markets are already priced for three. But at least four were priced a little over a month ago and the flattening of the money market and bond rate curves further suggest that dynamic is underway. Another harbinger of economic trouble to come is the flattening 2–10-year UK government bond yield curve. At just 24 basis points, that gap between short and long-term rates has more than halved since the Bank started talking tough in the autumn and is less than a quarter point from another worrying inversion seen just before the pandemic as formal Brexit neared.
Investment idea: range 1.3175 -1.3271.
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