S&P500, oil and platinum. Weekly review | 20 June 2014

S&P500

Monthly chart: the index is evidently overbought, therefore, a main strategy must be to look for possible reversal options. Meanwhile, the upper Bollinger band strives to 2019.5, so, a key point for potential sales is this very mark point. The target which is seen the best is the middle Bollinger band (1665.9).

Weekly chart: a diagnostic support is located at the middle Bollinger band (1862.2). Main scenario is to grow to 1219.5 (pink arrow). If bulls manage to break 1862.2, then, potential for decline to the bottom band (1776.4) will be shown, where a reversal Over&Under will be formed with its working line painted by blue arrow.

Day chart: bullish structure is also preserved here, but we see that RSI\ADX connection seems to be going through reversal: oscillator along with price dashed to new highs, whereas ADX starts falling. Resistance is based at the upper Bollinger band (1964.5), support is based at 1914.3 (the middle Bollinger band). The manoeuvre between these two levels is to form bearish O&U (blue arrow).

Conclusion: reversal is quite possible to happen in the nearest time. It is rather unlikely that such confident trends can be reversed at one fling, so, we will try to describe possible plans of reversal. Main scenario is a dash up to 1964.50 and a further roll down to 1914.3, then growth to 1954 and start of decline. Another option is to touch support 1914.3 and grow to 1219.5, from where one can make sales. Also reversal can be made if index starts decline right after opening and reaches 1776.6.  In this case, limit orders for sales can be put in the area of 1914.

"Brent" Oil

Monthly chart: the bottom envelope slightly supports bullish front, but on the whole the range 100.84-114.94 is quite stable and ADX does not show readiness to leave this range.

Weekly chart:  the upper envelop is broken (red flag for bears), but Bollinger bands are not expanded as they are supposed to and ADX is still based in passive area. It sets two possible options. The first one is a roll back to the middle Bollinger band (108.10) and growth to new highs (blue arrow). The second one is a false breakthrough and a further location within the envelopes (pink arrow).

Day chart: here a breakthrough is even more obvious, so, once a rollback to the middle line is made (109.44), we are to face a bullish wave.

Conclusion: we can face a roll downwards to the area of 109.44 and start of growth to 115and perhaps to 126 (if the point 115 is broken).

Platinum

Monthly chart: price hesitates within the envelopes in a rather stable way which means flat. We expect that price will move around the axis from the middle Bollinger band

(1455) in the middle run.

Weekly chart:  from the side of the bottom line there is a slight narrowing of envelopes. The bottom line had stabilized support 1356.88. But ADX is also passive, so purchases from this level are also justified for intraday traders. A probable target is the upper Bollinger band (1486.60).

Day chart: even more localized support is at 1424.10.

Conclusion: main plan is the flat within the range 1386.88-1486.60. Another option is a more narrow flat with support at 1424.10 and resistance at 1486.60.