Equally probable scenario with bearish positional advantage | 29 December 2016

29 December 2016, EUR/USD

Daily chart: ADX is in active and trend state, so bulls have a chance to attack 1.0542 (middle Bollinger band) and go higher. However, lower Bollinger band (1.0300) still behaves as magnet and bears, in their turn, could turn the situation in their favor. That's why we can consider both scenarios as equally probable.

Equally probable scenario with bearish positional advantage

Н4: as long as resistance level 1.0489 (upper Bollinger band) remains unbroken, decline is more relevant (see blue arrow). However, if buyers manage to break this level, there might appear potential for rising towards 1.0542 or higher.

Equally probable scenario with bearish positional advantage

Н1: there is quite a similar situation. Bears are in good position for selling with short stops towards 1.0373 (lower Bollinger band, see blue arrow). For bulls there remains nothing but trying to prevent decline by breaking 1.0489.

Equally probable scenario with bearish positional advantage

Expectations:

Core scenario- decline from current levels towards 1.0373

Alternative scenario - breakout towards 1.0542.

Solutions:

1. Sell with stops at 1.0489. The target is 1.0373

2. Buy at breakout of 1.0389. The target is 1.0542

Aleksey Panasenko
FreshForex Analyst
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