Recovery hitting resistance | 22 October 2013

The USD/JPY has recovered strongly after its sharp down-wave. It has reached 98.35 so far, but it may have difficulty rising much higher due to resistance overhead from the 50-day moving average, although 98.60 is possible. Overall the direction of the short-term trend is somewhat in doubt and requires clarification, however, maybe slightly more bearish. Panning-out further we see a large multi-month triangle in the medium term further confuses the direction of the trend. Nevertheless, today's Non-Farm Payrolls may help clarify. Overall a break below the 98.60 lows would provide final bearish confirmation, however, only 20 pips lower and support kicks in at 98.40 , nevertheless a break below that could signal a move to support at 97.10, and possibly even the 95.65 count eventually.