Pausing in up-trend | 14 October 2013

The USD/JPY pair has pulled back from the 98.55 highs after reaching a pause in the up-trend. Most of the targets generated from the rally have been met or almost met and there is resistance at 98.70 not far higher, nevertheless the dominant short-term trend remains 'up' and so the exchange rate will probably recovery eventually and go higher. There is the possibility of a sideways consolidation forming in the meantime until a catalyst pushes the exchange rate higher. Medium term the trend is still bearish, further complicating the picture. Eventually I would want to see a clear break above 98.70 for a sign of renewal of the up-trend, with targets unclear as yet.