Weekly Review. NIKKEI, DAX, Silver | 04 September 2015

NIKKEI

Monthly chart: one day is left before closure of the bar, and this day will be very important because it will show the real mood of the market - either a fall or a new upward attack.

Weekly chart: we have two subsequent breakdowns of swings, so we are based on continuation of the descending structure. Upon thzt, the last bar can cause problems to bears - very strong false breakdown and pinbar. To maintain the downward structure, it is necessary to protect the last Top (20924). Otherwise, the index will continue to new monthly highs.

The daily chart: the upward swing is ready, plus a strong pivot area has been reached. With equal probability, we can assume that the pair will either roll from current levels by at least 50% of the week's pinbar, or it will make some steps in the upward direction driven by potential obtained the last week. This duality is certainly difficult for making trading decisions and require search for confirming signals on younger frames.

Scenarious:

1) Growth from the current levels to 20000.

2) Decline from the current levels to 18100.

solutions:

1) Within the framework of two scenarios, we are in the wrong place for the best entry - the middle of the range. Therefore, we either expect closure of the month bar on Monday, or look for signals on the younger charts to find confirmation of one of the two scenarios.

DAX30

Monthly chart: we have a shaped swing down in the rising structure, but do not have the well-shaped entry signal. So, we shall wait.

Weekly chart: downward structure without signs of breakthrough. Waiting for the upward swing (at least 2 weeks of upward movement), and in the case of failure to break through the last Top (11811.6), we shall sell in the medium run expecting the breakdown of the last bottom (9329.6)

The daily chart: an ambivalent situation. The upward swing has been already formed, an inside bar at its end has been received. On the one hand, bears can operate from the current levent, on the other hand, there is the need to finish the weekly upward swing. Based on this, we need to see what  market will do with  borders of the inside bar to go in the direction of the breakdown (scenarios marked red and blue arrows).

Scenarious:

1) In case of breaking 10184.4 down, we should be waiting for decline with breakdown of 9329.6

2) With growth above 10353.0, we wait growth to 11025.0

solutions:

1) We either enter to break the inside bar from one side, or go into the direction of the already formed breakdown.

Silver

Monthly chart: Bears formed a new low again. Downward structure for silver issaved and, to reverse this trend, bulls again need to try very well.

Weekly chart: a false break of the last bottom allows the formation of reversal pattern up through the Over & Under, for which the price needs to go above the last Top (15.64). In this case, it will be possible to put Limit orders for purchase from the areas of the penult bottom (14.36) and Stops under the last bottom (13.96).

If bulls do not take advantage of this opportunity, we will see weakening of the upward swing in 15.00-15.28.

The daily chart: great inside bar. Even if the overall downward structure is peserved, there is potential for growth of silver to 15.28-15.48

Scenarious:

1) Growth to 15.28-15.48 and damping.

2) The same scenario, but with the continuation of the breakout above 15.61.

solutions:

1) We buy from the market towards 15.28 and possibly, 15.80.