The GBP/USD may fall below 1.5000 this week | 30 January 2015

Euro

The euro sets new records. After the European Central Bank head Mario Draghi’s recent statements the euro has fallen to the record low for more than nine years - now the euro does not exceed the dollar that is at the level of 1.1207.

Starting with spring, from March 2015, the regulator plans to begin acquiring assets in the amount of 60 billion euro a month. Moreover, the regulator is going to continue such activities till the sustained inflation improvement in the short term. They expect that the inflation will be positively stabilized by September 2016.

Trading recommendations

It is now recommended to short with the first target of 1.0980-1.1000. If this target is overcome, the shorts will be relevant to 1.0880-1.0900.

Pound

The British Industry Confederation (CBI) report was not full with positive dynamics - the industrial orders index fell to 4 in January against 5 in December when it was forecasted to see previous level of 5 and the industrial production index pointed out to the slowdown to the level of 13 against 16 in December, 2014. The statement by the Bank of England representative D. Miles signaled the lack of certainty about the BoE policy prospects - he said that the inflation slowdown tended to believe that there was no need to rush to bring the monetary policy in a more normal state, i.e. with the interest rates increase.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to short positions to 1.4950-1.4970. The second target is the level of 1.4880-1.4900.

Yen

The yen showed growth against the dollar and returned some of the losses, despite the rise in the Japanese stock market. Probably, the reason for it was the technical obstacles caused by the strong resistance. As for the prospects, the correction may be continued, but in the medium term the pair upward trend is preserved and its growth can be resumed in the short term as the Bank of Japan forecasted the inflation decline at the last interest rates meeting that makes us expect the further monetary policy easing measures.

Trading recommendations

It is now recommended to buy with the first target of 118.10-118.30. If the first target is overcome, we shall open deals to the level of 119.00-119.20.