#WTI:
OPEC published a fresh review for December, where it noted the growth in oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2020, and also improved its forecast of black gold consumption for 2021. Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th president of the United States on Wednesday, and traders are seeing the change in administration as increasing the chances of increased stimulus given the incoming president has already proposed a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief bill. This supported risk-on sentiment, to the detriment, as traders were prepared to buy riskier currencies on the idea of a quicker than previously expected global economic recovery.
Trading recommendation: Buy 51.30 and take profit 52.60.
#SP500:
The IHS Markit survey's measure of new orders received by factories raced to its highest level since September 2014. The surge in demand reflected both existing and new customers, "with some clients reportedly committing to orders previously placed on hold." That led to manufacturers hiring more workers early this month. The survey's factory employment index increased to 54.8 from 52.2 in December. The strength in manufacturing helped to lift business activity. The survey's flash composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to a reading of 58.0 early this month from 55.3 in December. A positive signal for the stock market!
Trading recommendation: Buy 3833 and take profit 3874.
XAUUSD:
We are expecting a bullish rally in the gold market in the new five-day period. The US Federal Reserve has updated its macroeconomic forecasts and expects inflation to rise to 1.8% next year, promising to keep interest rates at 0.1% until 2024. Thus, the real negative interest rate in the United States next year will increase from the current level of 1.1% to 1.7%. This is a positive signal for gold, as real negative interest rates force investors to buy precious metals to protect their capital from rising inflation.
Trading recommendation: Buy 1840 and take profit 1858.
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