30 December 2022, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
The 10-year Treasury yield has moved dramatically in 2022. But most investors don’t want to know where the 10-year Treasury yield has been, as interesting as it might be, but where it’s going. To get our bearings, we looked at a range of historical increases in the 10-year yield over a year and what it’s done in the following year. At a 0.5 percentage point move or higher in the last year, there has not been a clear historical bias toward higher or lower in the next year, but as the prior year move goes up from there, it became increasingly likely the 10-year yield would decrease in the next year, as did the average size of the decrease. This is a negative signal for the dollar.
Investment idea: buy 1.0630 and take profit 1.0694.
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