The EUR/USD returned to a fall | 27 March 2015

Euro

The euro fell against the dollar yesterday, the pair's movement was quite sluggish. The dollar showed a growth against the major currencies basket when the claims number fell to the five-week low last week increasing the optimism about the labor market recovery. Eurozone news shall show the money supply dynamics in the region – the M3 aggregate came out with an increase + 4.0% y/y in February against + 4.1% y/y, although it was expected a growth by 4.3%. The GfK leading consumer confidence index increased to 10.0 points in April from 9.7 points in March. Economists had forecasted the index growth to 9.9 points in April.

The pair EUR/USD finished the consolidation phase after its growth to the level of 1.1029. The pair is decreasing and broke through the support level of 1.0880-1.0900.

The support levels are 1.0750-1.0770, and the resistance levels are 1.0880-1.0900.

MACD is in a positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The loss of 1.0750-1.0770 may lead to a further decrease towards 1.0610-1.0630. The ability to consolidate below 1.1000-1.1020 will indicate the bears’ readiness to test the level of 1.0480-1.0500.

Pound

The British pound has fallen against the dollar as well. There was some cautious attitude towards the pound, connected with the upcoming elections in Great Britain. The British retailers sales rose by 0.7% m/m according to the National Statistics Office, compared with the revised 0.1% in January. Shops have sold more 5.7% for year than in February 2014. The pair GBP/USD is falling after its growth, the pair is trading in the range between the support near 1.4750-1.4770 and the resistance near 1.5000-1.5020.

The support levels: 1.4750-1.4770 and the resistance levels: 1.4900-1.4920.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

However, the pound still needs to rise and consolidate above the psychological level of 1.5000-1.5020 to continue the upward correction and it will ensure its growth towards the 52nd figure. The support loss near 1.4750-1.4770 may lead to a decrease towards 1.4680-1.4700.

Yen

The pessimism in US stock markets reduced risk appetite and pushed investors to the US dollar sales which recorded a slight decline against the yen. However, the pair increased at the end of the day. Investors continued to reduce the number of buying US dollar positions after the Fed signaled that it would not rush to raise interest rates amid the mixed economic data. Various rumors continue to put pressure on the US dollar. The dollar/yen bears tried to breakthrough below the support around 119.05-119.25, but their attempts were unsuccessful. When they managed to break through this support the pair rebounded upwards.

The support levels: 119.05-119.25, and the resistance levels: 120.20-120.40.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure and its rebounds are limited by the resistance near 117.95-118.15. The pair may test the support around 117.95-118.15 in the short term and its breakthrough will open the way to the 116th figure. The 120th is a key figure for the bulls.