The analytics predict the Greece economy default | 09 February 2015

Euro

The European economy forecast gave investors optimism. The euro area forecast for the current year increased from 1.1% to 1.3% and the next year from 1.7% to 1.9%. The oil prices decline, the ECB soft policy and the euro depreciation should be used as the basis for the further growth. The forecast for the UK dropped from 2.7% to 2.6% for the year, it dropped from 2.5% to 2.4% for 2016. The European economists consider that the exports reduction became a reason of such a decline. The initial impulse was given by an excellent December Germany industrial orders indicator growth that was 4.2% against the expected 1.4%.

The support levels are 1.1220-1.1240, and the resistance levels are 1.1340-1.1360.

MACD is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

It is now recommended to long with the first target of 1.1440-1.1460. If the target is overcome, the longs will be relevant with the target of 1.1520-1.1540.

Pound

The British pound rose against the dollar that obviously can be attributed to the continuing positive pound position formed amid the UK good PMI leading economic data. Among the news that supported the pound was the Halifax house prices report for January which pointed to the index growth resumption for the year - up 8.5% y/y after declining to 7.8% y/y in December from November's 8.1% y/y which was better as we had not expected any changes.

The BoE Policy Committee decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.50% and to leave the asset purchases volume at the same level of GBP 375 billion. Rate is at a record low since the beginning of 2009 after the two-day meeting, ended on Thursday. The rate has been at the record low level since 2009.

The support levels: 1.5200-1.5220 and the resistance levels: 1.5280-1.5300.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the target of 1.5140-1.5160. The second target is the level of 1.5080-1.5100.

Yen

Japan published the leading and coincident economic indicators data for December which showed positive results. However, the market was not impressed with it, the pair USD/JPY remained in the formed narrow range until the US data output. The US employment strong results pushed a tool for growth.

The support levels: 117.95-118.15, and the resistance levels: 119.25-119.45.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory.

Trading recommendations

It is now recommended to short with the first target of 117.95-118.15. If the first target is overcome, then the new target for short positions will be the level of 116.95-117.15.