The GBP/USD keeps its falling | 30 September 2014

Euro

There have not been published interesting macroeconomic releases. We expect two releases about the Germany inflation and the US real personal consumption. In September, the ECB again lowered its key rate to 0.05% in order to increase the inflationary pressure. In September, we saw a record oil decline by 6%, which, in consumption with a consumer confidence reduction shows a CPI drop.

M3 monetary aggregate has been growing for 2 consecutive months in the euro area. In this context, we can expect the release about the forecasted medians level that will serve as a small support for the dollar.

The support levels are 1.2640 - 1.2660, and the resistance levels are 1.2730 - 1.2750.

MACD is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair is breaking through the new lows. The downward trend is still strong, pointing to the likelihood of a breakthrough below 1.2660. It will target the pair to 1.2580 and will create a new minimum.

Pound

Amid the UK macroeconomic releases absence, the traders will take a wait- and -see position. The US data supported the US dollar growth and pushed the "cable" downward, the GDP shows an increase by 4.6 % in the second quarter as analysts had expected, and it is above the previous estimate of 4.2 % growth. The yield spread on the UK and US 10-year bonds are not still in the British currency favor which will be a deterrent for the bulls.

The pound is continuing its decline. The pair is heavily oversold, the upward pullback may begin in the short term.

The support levels are 1.6180 - 1.6200, and the resistance levels are 1.6300 - 1.6320.

MACD is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

It is recommended to short to 1.6200. If the target is overcome, the new target will be 1.6130.

Yen

The traders took a wait-and-see position. The Japanese stock market is trying to consolidate above the this year and maximum value and it has great possibilities for doing this. The Japan macroeconomic statistics leaves much to be desired, and the Central Bank again declared its readiness to expand its asset purchase program volume.

The yen prospects remain bleak, but it’s oversold and the psychological level proximity increases correction risks.

The support levels: 109.00-109.20, and the resistance levels: 110.00-110.20.

The MACD is in a positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The buyers remain dominant players in this trading instrument. Trading takes place in the upward direction. The bullish trend is still in force. The potential growth target is the resistance level of 110.00.