18 June 2014, EUR/USD
Euro
There are no drivers for the euro/dollar to continue the downward trend. It is possible that the Germany business climate report from ZEW institute will reassure the "Bears" to open short positions in case of weak data publishing. This indicator refers to the number of leading factors and is quite difficult to be predicted.
The consolidation continues. The pair managed to recover to 1.3579 during the Asian session. Still the recovery has failed as the forecast remains negative. This is confirmed by the growth attempts that continue to attract interest in sales.
The support levels are 1.3535- 1.3560, and the resistance levels are 1.3590- 1.3600.
MACD is in negative territory. The histogram is growing.
Trading recommendations
We don’t exclude a recovery towards 1.3600-1.3620, and it might be used to go short. The minimum target is the support around 1.3480.
Pound
The leading indicators show that we should not expect inflationary pressure. The seasonal factor indicates the CPI contraction while the money supply aggregate M4 is still in the negative area, the wages are reduced as well, forcing people to limit their buying.
The GBP/USD consolidates after rising to 1.6980 last week. Monday the "bulls" moved slightly higher, testing the mark 1.7010 as the pair came under pressure and was forced to retreat the local support in the area 1.6959.
The support levels are 1.6900 - 1.6920, and the resistance levels are 1.6960 - 1.6975.
MACD histogram started a decrease showing low volatility.
Trading recommendations
Inability to go higher could trigger short-term profit-taking and further decrease to 1.6900-1.6942.
Yen
The investors do not hurry to open deals before the Fed meeting's end. We are waiting for the lateral movement during the day again. The macroeconomic statistics from the United States is not able to help the "bulls" while the "Bears" also could not lower the price to the 101 figure - any strong decrease is bought out and the pair recovers back to the 102 figure.
The support levels: 101.70-101.80, and the resistance levels: 102.00 – 102.10.
The MACD is below the zero line and is growing.
Trading recommendations
The USD/JPY is still trading above the support 101.59. Yesterday, the pair movement was limited by the level 102.24.
The dollar rose in the Asian session. While it is below 102.30, the further downward correction risks persist.
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