USDJPY: BUY 146.50, SL 145.90, TP 147.50 | 14 July 2025

USDJPY:

The dollar is holding steady at 146.50 against the yen: another rise in US yields and stable demand for safe US assets following comments from the Fed are fueling appetite for the USD, while demand for the JPY remains sluggish.

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The tariff front exacerbates the imbalance: the White House has already imposed 25% tariffs on Japanese goods, and new ideas for “umbrella” tariffs are heightening fears of a trade war, forcing investors to flow into financing currencies. Reuters notes that the yen weakened to 146.4, recording a weekly decline of more than 1%.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan is not yet ready for aggressive tightening: a decline in inflation to 1.8% y/y and weak real wage dynamics make it difficult to raise rates above 0.5%. The divergence in monetary policy and expectations for Japanese macro data (machine tool orders, industrial production) until July 14 form the fundamental basis for the pair's growth to 147.50 and above, while the risks of correction are limited to the 145.90 zone.

Trading recommendation: BUY 146.50, SL 145.90, TP 147.50

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