GBPUSD: SELL 1.3550, SL 1.3580, TP 1.3475 | 14 July 2025

An event to watch out for today:

11.07 09:00 EET. GBP - GDP change

GBPUSD:

The pound remains within a range, hovering around 1.3550: uncertainty surrounding new US tariffs is exacerbating global risks and supporting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

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The fundamental backdrop for sterling is being undermined by a combination of weak domestic macro data and fiscal challenges. The UK budget is under pressure due to the expansion of social programs, while the Bank of England's Financial Stability Committee is warning of the possibility of a sharp decline in the value of risky assets.

Concerns about GDP growth prospects and the Bank of England's limited room for maneuver on interest rates are intensifying amid expectations of a prolonged “hawkish” stance by the Fed. In the absence of positive surprises in macro statistics, the base target shifts to 1.3475, while a return above 1.3600 is only possible with a sharp reversal in Fed rhetoric or easing tariff pressure.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3550, SL 1.3580, TP 1.3475

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