EURUSD: SELL 1.1675, SL 1.1715, TP 1.1615 | 14 July 2025

EURUSD:

The euro retreats: the publication of US data on initial jobless claims once again exceeded expectations, reinforcing market doubts about the Fed's imminent easing and pushing the pair below 1.1700.

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The US currency strengthened again after the publication of better-than-expected unemployment claims data: the US labor market remains stable, reducing the likelihood of an early easing of Fed policy. At the same time, investors are focusing on the PCE price index, which could confirm that inflationary pressure is still above target.

Additional pressure on the euro is being created by discussions of a possible US-EU trade deal, which is stimulating capital inflows into the dollar and strengthening the greenback. In the eurozone, German wholesale price data signals a slowdown in inflation, and some ECB members remain cautious, pointing to the risk of premature tightening.

With the yield differential remaining in place and no stimulating factors for the euro, the base scenario implies a further decline in the quote to 1.1615; the risk of a pullback above 1.1715 appears limited and is only possible if US statistics deteriorate sharply.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1675, SL 1.1715, TP 1.1615

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