USDJPY: BUY 147.05, SL 146.45, TP 148.00 | 10 July 2025
10 July 2025, USD/JPY
Event to watch today:
21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
USDJPY:
The yen has carved out a two-week low after Washington confirmed it will impose 25 percent tariffs on Japanese goods from 1 August and warned of mirror measures if Tokyo retaliates. Political uncertainty ahead of the 20 July upper-house election is exacerbating capital outflows into dollar-denominated assets.
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Monetary-policy differentials also work against the yen: ten-year U.S. Treasury yields are holding above 4.4 percent, while the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-easy stance and signals unlimited JGB purchases to cap yields. Fed-funds futures now price in fewer than 50 basis points of easing by year-end, whereas the probability of a BoJ rate hike before March 2026 remains below 30 percent.
On the spot market the pair has secured a foothold above 146.70 and is approaching the psychological 147.00 threshold, driven by the strong dollar–weak yen combo. Absent any sign of FX intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance and with U.S.–Japan trade tensions unresolved, USDJPY looks poised to challenge the June peak at 148.00 in the coming sessions.
Trading recommendation: BUY 147.05, SL 146.45, TP 148.00
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