EURUSD: SELL 1.1705, SL 1.1745, TP 1.1650 | 10 July 2025

Event to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

EURUSD:

The euro is sliding back toward the 1.1700–1.1710 zone after the White House pushed the start date for new import duties out to 1 August while simultaneously widening the range of industries that could face a 25 percent tariff. Investors see the pause as temporary: heightened trade-policy risk is lifting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, whereas the export-oriented euro-area economy now faces an even sharper threat of external demand contraction.

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Further support for the “greenback” comes from expectations that sticky domestic inflation in the United States, coupled with potentially higher import costs, will keep the Federal Reserve’s policy rate anchored in the 5.25 – 5.50 percent corridor for longer. Ten-year Treasury yields have edged back up toward 4.45 percent, and today’s FOMC minutes could reinforce a hawkish tone, deepening the monetary-policy divergence with the ECB.

In the euro area, faltering business activity and the ECB’s downward revision of its 2025–2026 inflation outlook are weighing on corporate investment. Markets doubt the central bank will quickly revert to tightening after June’s rate cut, and with trade risks persisting, the pair has room to fall toward 1.1650.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1705, SL 1.1745, TP 1.1650

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