EURUSD: SELL 1.1745, SL 1.1780, TP 1.1700 | 09 July 2025

EURUSD:

The single currency remains under pressure. After an intraday spike to 1.1750, the pair retreated as traders follow emergency talks between the European Commission and the U.S. administration. Brussels hopes to cap bilateral tariffs at 10 percent until 1 August, but the uncertainty surrounding a final deal prompts investors to scale back long-euro exposure.

Further headwinds come from solid U.S. data: a strong June payrolls report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at least until September. Fed-funds futures now assign less than a 5 percent chance of a July cut and barely 30 percent for September, widening the yield gap in favour of the dollar.

Euro support is also limited by more modest easing bets for the ECB. While yesterday’s retail-sales beat (+1.8 percent y/y) looked encouraging, policymakers stress that a rapid loosening cycle is unlikely: disinflation is proving slower than the spring forecast, and fiscal stimulus in several member states is adding price pressure. All told, the pair retains a bearish bias toward the 1.1700 area.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1745, SL 1.1780, TP 1.1700

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