EURUSD: SELL 1.1770, SL 1.1800, TP 1.1690 | 07 July 2025

Events to pay attention to today:

12:00 EET. EUR - Producer Price Index

EURUSD:

On Friday, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is trading in a narrow range around 1.1760. The main currency pair is showing sluggish dynamics amid the US holiday (Independence Day).

The US dollar (USD) is maintaining its recovery, triggered by better-than-expected non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for June. Data released on Thursday showed that the US economy added 147,000 new jobs, exceeding expectations of 110,000.

The better-than-expected NFP data brought some relief to the US dollar, but this is unlikely to continue as the report shows that private sector hiring is losing momentum. Private employers added 74,000 jobs in June, well below the three-month average of 115,000. This scenario is unlikely to ease the position of several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, who advocated for lower interest rates at a policy meeting later this month, citing potential risks in the labour market.

In the eurozone, the sharp appreciation of the euro (EUR) has raised concerns that inflation could fall below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target. According to a senior ECB official, ‘the ECB may have to make it clear that too strong a euro could be a problem, as it could cause inflation to hover below target,’ reports the Financial Times (FT).

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1770, SL 1.1800, TP 1.1690

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