GBPUSD: SELL 1.3745, SL 1.3790, TP 1.3675 | 03 July 2025

An event to watch out for today:

02.07 15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

GBPUSD:

On Wednesday, during the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair is trading unchanged at around 1.3745. However, dovish statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and growing concerns about the budget may put pressure on the dollar in the near term. Investors are awaiting the ADP report on US employment for June, which will be released later on Wednesday, in the hope of new momentum.

Powell said on Tuesday that the US central bank would be patient about further interest rate cuts, but did not rule out a rate cut at its July meeting, although the decision would depend on incoming data. According to the CME FedWatch tool, short-term interest rate futures now price in the probability of a rate cut in July at almost 1 in 4, up from less than 1 in 5 previously.

Investors are concerned about US President Donald Trump's massive tax and spending bill, which could increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion. The bill will return to the House of Representatives for final approval. Fiscal concerns could dampen optimism and contribute to a decline in the US dollar.

As for the pound sterling, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that there are currently signs of a weakening UK labor market and stressed that interest rates are likely to continue to fall. The UK central bank is expected to cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025, bringing them to 3.5% to combat sluggish economic growth and a weakening labor market. Rate cuts are expected in August, September, and November 2025, with possible quarterly reductions.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3745, SL 1.3790, TP 1.3675

Up to $20 for each lot in real money - get a guaranteed income by connecting Cashback promotion!