EURUSD: BUY 1.1750, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1840 | 01 July 2025

Event to pay attention to today:

20:30 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

EURUSD:

EUR/USD continued to rally to the 1.1720 level in the early hours of Asian trading on Monday, helped by a weaker US Dollar (USD). The greenback is declining against the euro (EUR) as traders are confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates at its September meeting.

Data released on Friday showed that US personal spending unexpectedly fell in May, the second decline this year. Meanwhile, US personal income fell 0.4% in May, the biggest decline since September 2021. Traders are betting that the U.S. central bank will cut rates more frequently and possibly sooner than previously expected, which will put pressure on the U.S. dollar and create a tailwind for the major pair.

Across the ocean, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Klaas Knot said on Friday that the current interest rate is “a good place to be”, adding that at least one more 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut is expected before the end of 2025. Following this comment, the swaps market continues to forecast only one 25 bps ECB rate cut over the next 12 months, with the rate expected to remain at 1.75%.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1750, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1840

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