GBPUSD: SELL 1.2890, SL 1.2950, TP 1.2780 | 11 March 2025

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair began the new week positively, trading at around 1.2940-1.2945 during the Asian session and matching the four-month high reached on Friday.The bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) supports the prospects of extending the momentum of last week's breakout above the significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD against a basket of currencies, is approaching its lowest point since early November, a development that followed Friday's weak monthly US jobs data.The headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) data revealed that the US economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the consensus estimates. In addition, the previous month's data was revised downward to 125k and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1% from 4.0% in January.This comes amid fears that US President Donald Trump's policies will hit US economic activity, and suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates several more times this year. Current market predictions indicate approximately three 25bp rate cuts this year, a development that persists in exerting pressure on the pound and thereby supporting the GBP/USD pairing.The remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he expressed that the US central bank has no intention of hastily reducing interest rates, did not provide any respite for those who advocate a strengthening of the dollar.

Conversely, the British pound is bolstered by the anticipation that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a more gradual rate reduction approach compared to other major central banks, including the Fed.This dynamic is further fueling demand for the GBP/USD pair, underscoring a positive outlook.Absent significant market-moving economic data from the UK or the US, the US dollar is expected to exert influence on spot prices, enabling traders to capitalize on short-term opportunities.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.2890, SL 1.2950, TP 1.2780

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