EURUSD: SELL 1.0810, SL 1.0880, TP 1.0715 | 11 March 2025

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD pair commenced the week positively, trading at around 1.0860 during Monday's Asian session, primarily driven by concerns regarding a potential slowdown in the United States (US) economy. San Francisco Fed Chair Mary Daly stated late Sunday that rising business uncertainty could lead to a reduction in demand in the US economy, but does not warrant interest rate adjustments.

On Friday, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that non-farm payrolls (NFP) rose by 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the expected 160,000. January's job growth data was also revised downward to 125,000 from the previously reported 143,000. Weaker than expected labour market data could put pressure on the US Dollar (USD), providing a tailwind for EUR/USD.Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday that the 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports imposed by President Donald Trump in February, which were set to take effect on Wednesday, are unlikely to be delayed, Bloomberg reported. While U.S. steel producers have urged Trump to maintain the tariffs, businesses that depend on those materials could face increased costs, potentially dampening market sentiment, supporting the US Dollar and limiting the upside for EUR/USD.The Euro (EUR) received a boost from fiscal reforms in Germany as the country's main political parties announced plans to overhaul the debt brake. The proposed changes aim to increase defence spending and fund a €500 billion infrastructure initiative to boost economic growth.In addition, European leaders have agreed on a significant increase in defence spending to strengthen the continent's military capabilities.On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected 25 basis points (bps) rate cut and acknowledged that policy is becoming less tight, hinting at a possible pause in further cuts. Market participants anticipate one or two additional 25bp rate cuts this year.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.0810, SL 1.0880, TP 1.0715

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