EURUSD: SELL 1.0800, SL 1.0880, TP 1.0660 | 07 March 2025

Event to pay attention to today:

15:15 EET. EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision

EURUSD:

EUR/USD rose by 1.75 per cent to 1.0800 on Wednesday amid rising risk sentiment following another announcement from US President Donald Trump about changing his own tariff strategy. President Trump is once again hitting the brakes on his own trade strategy.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to cut interest rates by a further 25bps, lowering the main refinancing operations rate to 2.65% and lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. Despite the general tone of weak or sluggish growth that pervaded EU economic data in the first quarter, traders revised their expectations for additional ECB rate cuts before the end of the year as inflation continues to be a bigger problem than central planners had anticipated. Rates markets now see less than 70bp in rate cuts before the end of 2025.

The US employment change from ADP for February showed just 77k new jobs, well below the forecast of 140k and March's 186k. However, the ADP results have consistently failed to correlate with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) since the reporting change in 2022, suggesting that the weak reading does not matter much.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0800, SL 1.0880, TP 1.0660

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