18 October 2024, EUR/USD
EURUSD:
EUR/USD broke its four-day losing streak, trading near 1.0840 during the Asian session on Friday. However, the US dollar (USD) received support and hit a two-month high of 103.87 on Thursday, helped by a good US retail sales report, which fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may go for a nominal rate cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 90.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November and a 74.0% chance of another cut in December.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month in September, exceeding both August's 0.1% increase and market expectations for a 0.3% increase.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 19,000 in the week ended October 11, the largest decline in three months. Total claims fell to 241,000, well below the 260,000 expected.
However, the euro faced downward pressure following Thursday's decision by the European Central Bank (ECB).
The ECB cut its main refinancing operations rate and deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.40% and 3.25%, respectively.
Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0860, when fixing above consider Buy positions, when rebounding consider Sell positions.
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