Unexpectedly strong US jobs data strengthened the dollar | 07 October 2024

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD pair starts the new week on a subdued note and consolidates last week's significant losses to its lowest level since mid-August, achieved on the back of favourable US jobs data on Friday. The pair is currently trading around 1.0970.

The US Dollar (USD) is near a seven-week high as traders further reduced their bets on another significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November on the back of unexpectedly strong US jobs data. The key NFP figure showed that the economy added 254k jobs in September, well above consensus estimates, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. This was an indication that the US labour market remains robust, while higher than expected growth in average hourly earnings has revived inflationary concerns, dashing hopes for more aggressive easing policies from the Fed.

In fact, current market pricing points to a nearly 95 per cent probability that the Fed will cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points at the end of its two-day meeting on 7 November. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have helped the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, register its lowest week since September 2022. On the other hand, the euro continues to be undermined by bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates again in October amid weakening inflationary pressures and slowing economic growth.

Expectations were confirmed by comments from ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Gallo, who said the central bank will cut rates in October as weak economic growth raises the risk of inflation falling short of its 2% target. This, in turn, is seen as another factor acting as a headwind for EUR/USD and supporting the prospects for further rate cuts in the near term. Thus, any recovery attempt can be seen as a selling opportunity and risks to quickly derail.

Trading Recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0940, in case of consolidation below we consider Sell positions.

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