18 September 2024, EUR/USD
Event to pay attention to today:
21:00 GMT+3. USD - FOMC Rate Decision
EURUSD:
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair paused its bullish recovery, easing bullish pressure and forming a hesitation pattern just above 1.1100. This is likely due to traders awaiting the Federal Reserve (Fed) speech scheduled for Wednesday.
With minimal activity on the European economic calendar this week, traders are focusing their attention on the much-anticipated mid-week Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike.
The US retail sales data for August supported expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with sales rising 0.1% compared to the median forecast of a -0.2% decline. The retail sales figure for July was also revised upwards to 1.1%, although core retail sales (excluding auto purchases) rose only 0.1% versus a forecast of 0.2%.
The only significant event on this week's data list is the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate meeting on Wednesday. Since the beginning of the year, markets have been anticipating a reduction in the Federal Reserve interest rate. This expectation was first expressed by investors in March. CME's FedWatch tool indicates that the betting markets are still divided over the depth of the first expected Fed rate cut since early 2020. Traders estimate a 60% chance of a double 50bp rate cut to kick off the next Fed rate cut cycle, while the remaining 40% expect a more reasonable 25bp rate cut.
Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 1.1150, if we consolidate above it we take Buy positions, if we bounce below 1.1100 we take Sell positions.
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