21 August 2024, USD/JPY
An event to look out for today:
21:00 GMT+3. USD - Publication of the Fed meeting minutes
USDJPY:
The Japanese Yen (JPY) declined against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of trade balance data on Wednesday. However, the yen's decline may be limited due to the growing likelihood of another interest rate hike in the near future. Traders are also expecting Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda to address parliament on Friday, where he will discuss the central bank's decision to raise interest rates last month.
Japan's merchandise trade balance narrowed to a deficit of 621.84 billion yen in July, changing the 224.0 billion yen surplus recorded in June to a deficit of 330.7 billion yen, according to market estimates. This is the fifth deficit this year as imports grew much faster than exports.
The US Dollar (USD) is trying to halt a three-day losing streak as traders are cautious ahead of Wednesday's release of FOMC meeting minutes, which will decide on July policy. Additionally, traders are looking ahead to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the probability of a 25 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut at the September meeting is nearly 67.5%, up from 76% a day ago. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut fell to 32.5% from 53.0% a week earlier.
Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 145.90, if the level strengthens above, consider Buy positions, if the level rebounds, consider Sell positions.
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