19 August 2024, GBP/USD
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD builds on last week's breakout momentum and rises to a more than one-month peak above 1.2950 during Monday's Asian session. The strong upward move comes on the back of the recent strong bounce from the technically significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and could be seen as a new boost for bullish traders.
The British Pound (GBP) continues to receive support from relatively stronger UK macroeconomic data last week, which pointed to a still resilient economy and may have dashed hopes of another Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut in September. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, languished near its lowest level since January earlier this month amid dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and is another supportive factor for GBP/USD.
Although markets have cut bets on more aggressive policy easing, investors seem convinced that the US central bank will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September. Expectations were confirmed by recent comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who said the US central bank needs to take a gradual approach to lowering borrowing costs. This has kept US Treasury bond yields low and put pressure on the dollar.
In addition, the prevailing risk-on environment is further deterring traders from placing bullish bets on the safe-haven dollar. This, in turn, confirms a positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair in the near term and supports the prospects for the continuation of the nearly two-week uptrend in the absence of significant macroeconomic data from the UK and the US. Traders, however, can expect fresh clues on the path of the Fed rate cut before making aggressive directional bets.
Thus, the main focus will be on the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. This will be followed by the release of flash PMI indices on Thursday, which, along with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, should provide meaningful momentum for the latter part of the week.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level
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