Positive momentum on the pound | 09 August 2024

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair is developing on the back of a good bounce from the 1.2665 area, a five-week low, and is gaining positive momentum for the second day in a row. This momentum is lifting spot prices above the mid-1.2700s during the Asian session and is supported by a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD).

As investors ignore Thursday's encouraging US labor market report, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of currencies, retreats further from Thursday's one-week high and acts as a tailwind for GBP/USD. The US Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims totaled 233k for the week ended August 3, compared to expectations of 240k and 249k in the previous week. The upbeat data eased fears of an economic slowdown in the world's largest economy, although the Federal Reserve's (Fed) soft expectations continue to undermine demand for the dollar.

Markets fully appreciated the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut in September and are speculating on the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut. This, in turn, is causing a new round of declines in US Treasury yields, which, along with the positive tone on risk, is putting downward pressure on the safe-haven greenback. However, any meaningful movement in GBP/USD seems elusive amid rising bets of two more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in 2024. This, along with the ongoing unrest in the UK, should deter traders from aggressively bullish betting on the British Pound (GBP).

There will be no market-important economic data released on Friday from either the UK or the US, so the GBP/USD pair will be at the mercy of USD price action. Nevertheless, spot prices continue to suffer moderate losses for the fourth week in a row. The focus will now shift to the release of monthly UK employment data due next Tuesday, followed by the latest UK and US consumer inflation data on Wednesday. In addition, the UK monthly GDP data on Thursday should help in determining the next stage of directional movement of the currency pair.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

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