06 August 2024, USD/JPY
USDJPY:
US employment data released on Friday showed that the unemployment rate rose in July, reinforcing the likelihood that the US economy is heading for recession. Markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in September and November and another quarter point in December.
According to LSEG data, Fed funds futures indicate that investors rate the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the September meeting at nearly 99%. The expectation of more aggressive rate cuts from the Fed is pressuring the U.S. dollar (USD) across the board.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that the Fed will retaliate if economic or financial conditions deteriorate. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the central bank will be watching to see if the next labor market report reflects the same dynamics or changes, adding that the Fed is ready to act as more information becomes available.
On the other hand, the Japanese yen (JPY) is gaining momentum as traders unwind carry trades. In addition, the expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to tighten monetary policy after last week's rate hike may help the JPY to rise in the near term.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 146.00. We consider sell orders at the price level of 145.60.
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