26 June 2024, EUR/USD
EURUSD:
Wednesday's economic calendar is noticeably depleted, although traders will pay attention to the fact that Germany's latest GfK Consumer Confidence Index for July is expected to improve slightly from the previous reading of -20.9 to -18.9. European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane is also expected to deliver some talking points during the European market session. However, the ECB executive board member is not expected to rock the boat or otherwise deviate from recent talking points announced by other ECB board members.
In the U.S., the latest bank stress test results will also be released, but the numbers are not expected to differ much from previous Federal Reserve stress tests of the U.S. banking system. The current "severely adverse" stress test requires banks to test the resilience of their balance sheets under a hypothetical scenario in which the U.S. unemployment rate reaches 10% within two years and market volatility increases, home prices fall 36% and commercial real estate values decline 40%.
Thursday will kick off the week's data releases in earnest with the release of final EU consumer confidence data for June, as well as the revised first quarter US gross domestic product (GDP), which is expected to remain at 1.3% QoQ.
Friday will blow up this week's economic release schedule with the release of German retail sales data for May and the latest US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, also for May. Investors will be keeping a close eye on further declines in crucial U.S. inflation indicators to see if the Fed remains on track for an initial rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 18.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0745. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0680.
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