01 April 2024, EUR/USD
An event to watch out for today:
17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
EURUSD:
EUR/USD is trading on a weak note near 1.0787 amid renewed demand for the US dollar early in the Asian session on Monday. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance on rate hikes is providing some support for the US Dollar and is weighing on the Euro-Dollar pair.
On Friday, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% in February from the previous month, matching expectations. On an annualized basis, PCE inflation rose 2.5% in February from a year earlier. The core PCE index, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year in February. The data suggests inflation continues to rise, which may cause the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold off on starting to cut interest rates this year.
Last week, the U.S. Fed left interest rates unchanged in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% for the fifth consecutive week and still expects three quarter percentage point cuts before the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently estimate the probability of the Fed's first rate cut in June at about 55%, up from nearly 70% last week. On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the latest U.S. inflation data is in line with expectations and that the Fed's interest rate target remains unchanged this year.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
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