01 November 2023, GBP/USD
GBPUSD trading plan:
The probability of a recession in the United States next year, as estimated by the inversion of the US Treasury yield curve, continues to rise and has reached new highs since the early 1980s. In the entire 60-year history of observations, the probability of a recession estimated in this way has only been higher in the early 1980s. In the run-up to a recession, the US dollar always enjoys increased demand. At the beginning of the year, there was a lot of talk about de-dollarization, but in practice de-euroization has taken place: since the beginning of the year, the volume of euro payments in the Swift global payment system has fallen to levels characteristic of the last ten years, while the volume of dollar payments has reached its highest level in the last ten years.
Investment idea: sell 1.2190 and take profit 1.2077.
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