16 October 2023, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
US consumer sentiment has fallen steadily since October and is now at its lowest level in five months. Most importantly, inflation expectations have deteriorated significantly over the past year. The main deterioration in consumer sentiment and the rise in inflation expectations are probably related to higher gasoline prices, to which consumers are very sensitive, but this does not change the overall picture: it is becoming more inflationary. If you don't count outliers, the trend towards lower inflation has temporarily stopped. Finally, the latest labour market reports suggest that the unemployment rate has been more pro-cyclical. In such a situation, the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates in November, which will be positive for the dollar.
Investment idea: sell 1.0550 and take profit 1.0475.
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