The ECB's problem | 27 July 2023

EURUSD trading plan:

The European Central Bank will raise interest rates for the ninth time in a row and keep the door open to further moves as persistent inflation and growing evidence of an economic downturn pull policymakers in opposing directions. Fighting off a historic surge in prices, the ECB has lifted borrowing costs by 4 percentage points since last July and essentially promised another quarter-point increase this month, making the outcome meeting a near-certainty. But the central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro is likely to ditch its practice of signalling its next move, promising a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach instead. That will leave investors guessing whether another rate hike is coming in September or if July marks the end of the ECB's fastest-ever tightening spree.

Investment idea: range 1.1100 -1.1180