The hopeful development for the ECB | 03 May 2023

EURUSD trading plan:

Euro zone inflation accelerated last month but underlying price growth eased unexpectedly, adding to arguments for a smaller interest rate hike at the European Central Bank's regular policy meeting. Excluding volatile food and fuel prices, core inflation slowed to 7.3% from 7.5%, while an even narrower measure, which excludes alcohol and tobacco, slowed to 5.6% from 5.7%, coming below forecasts for 5.7% for its first decline since last June. In a hopeful development for the ECB, processed food, alcohol and tobacco inflation slowed a full percentage point to 14.7%, suggesting that a long-awaited turnaround in food prices may now be happening. Inflation has slowed sharply from double-digit readings late last year but remains far too high, making another rate hike a necessity and leaving only its size up for debate, with ECB policymakers split between a 25 and a 50-basis point move.

Investment idea: buy 1.0980 and take profit 1.1070.