09 February 2023, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
A shift in sentiment on Federal Reserve policy is emerging in interest-rate options, where several big wagers on the central bank’s benchmark rate reaching 6% — nearly a percentage point higher than the current consensus — have popped up this week. Preliminary open-interest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange confirmed the $18 million wager placed in Secured Overnight Financing Rate options set to expire in September, targeting a 6% benchmark rate. That’s almost a full percentage point more than the 5.1% level for that month currently priced into interest-rate swaps. Traders are already looking ahead to what new interest-rate projections — the central bank’s so-called “dot plot,” to be published after its next policy meeting in March — may show, now that markets are aligned with the last set of projections published in December.
Investment idea: range 1.0710 - 1.0820.
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