23 May 2022, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
Euro zone money markets ramped up their bets on a 50 basis-point interest rate hike from the European Central Bank in July. Dutch central bank governor and ECB policymaker Klaas Knot said on Tuesday that the bank should keep the door open to a 50-bps hike if upcoming data suggested inflation was "broadening further or accumulating". Knot's speech shifted market expectations, and on Friday traders priced in as much as 36 bps of hikes by July. That suggested a 25-bps hike is fully priced in, and about a 50% probability of an additional 25 bps move. The much greater rise in the two-year yield relative to the 10-year sharply narrowed the yield curve by 11 bps this week in the biggest move since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.
Investment idea: buy 1.0595 and take profit 1.0644.
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