10 March 2022, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
The 25-member ECB Governing Council will go into the meeting divided, raising the chances of a policy surprise and the risk of an error. The safest route would appear to be for the bank to confirm an earlier decision to continue reducing bond purchases next quarter while leaving all other commitments, including an end-date for the buys and the timing of a rate hike, up in the air. The ECB will aim to buy some time by proceeding with the previously planned gradual tapering in April, while increasing flexibility in the forward guidance to allow more room to act once the immediate fog lifts. A rebound in economic growth and the tightest labour market in decades should also be pushing the ECB to abandon its ultra-easy policy stance and end a nearly decade-long experiment with unconventional stimulus.
Investment idea: buy 1.1021 and take profit 1.1074.
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