Equiprobable scenarios | 21 Juli 2016

Daily chart: the pair is close to the middle Bollinger band (1.3337). From here, there are only two ways - either to the lower band (1.2380, the blue arrow.) or to the top one (1.4323, the red arrow.)

Н4: we can assume exactly the same scenarios. Bollinger Envelopes' range is 1.3058-1.3337. Northern scenario would be activated by exit of the price beyond the upper envelope.

Н1: the upper limit of the envelope is at 1.3236 (upper Bollinger band). The next level of resistance is 1.3337. Support is at the middle band (1.3148)

The main scenario - a downward bounce from 1.3236 towards 1.3147

The alternative scenario - a breakthrough of 1.3238 and then rise to 1.3337