The new rate | 25 Marzo 2022

#SP500:

The Federal Reserve voted to increase the fed funds rate by 25 basis points and signaled further rate increases were appropriate. The rate hike was the first since 2018 and launches the first new rate hiking campaign since 2015. While the rate hike was expected, the revised dot plot showed the Committee is serious about bringing inflationary pressures back down. Also released was the updated “dot plot”, which provides the individual member’s projections on the future path of interest rates. Now, the median dot of the Committee, in aggregate, reflects seven interest rate hikes in 2022, bringing the policy rate up to 1.9%. Three months ago, the Committee was expecting three rate hikes this year and a policy rate below 1%. This is a negative signal for the stock market.

Trading recommendation: sell 4490 and take profit 4225.

#FTSE100:

Traders expect the Bank of England to sell 113 billion pounds of government bonds over the next three years, on top of 150 billion maturing from its 875-billion-pound stockpile, a BoE survey showed. Britain's central bank announced last month that it would begin to unwind its bond purchases for the first time since it launched quantitative easing in 2009, starting with an immediate end to the reinvestment of gilts which mature. The central bank has said it will consider active bond sales once it has raised Bank Rate to 1%, which financial markets expect to take place after the BoE's next meeting in May. The BoE will use interest rates as its main tool to control inflation, which it expects to hit a 30-year high of around 8% next month and potentially rise further.

Trading recommendation: sell 7466 and take profit 7293.

#WTI:

Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said, that global oil demand was seeing healthy growth as economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic while tight global spare capacity was declining. “Global spare capacity is around 2 million barrels per day, which is not significant enough to deal with these geopolitical events and what is happening in the market,” Nasser said in a media call. Oil Minister Javad Owji said in televised remarks, that he will try to raise Iran’s oil and condensates exports to 1.4 million barrels per day as set out in an annual state budget.

Trading recommendation: buy 101.50 and take profit 105.77