05 Agosto 2025, EUR/USD
EURUSD:
The euro/dollar pair opens the week consolidating near 1.16 after a sharp rally on Friday, when a weak U.S. July jobs report and sizable downward revisions to prior readings boosted expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut. Markets increased pricing for easing as early as September, short-dated Treasury yields retreated, and the dollar’s appeal as a “carry” asset diminished. On Monday, August 4, the greenback steadied somewhat, but the lingering impact of the soft NFP remains a notable driver of the EUR/USD balance of risks.
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From the Eurozone, the early-week calendar brings few fresh catalysts, and the ECB’s tone remains cautious amid an uneven recovery. Even so, the key fundamental factor for the pair is the relative trajectory of monetary policies: if markets continue to price a quicker and deeper Fed easing cycle, the rate differential and yield expectations should favor the euro, supporting demand on dips. Softer U.S. inflation risks and a cooling labor market add to that backdrop.
Political and market uncertainty in the U.S. may further amplify short-term dollar volatility. Any new signals from the Fed, comments on the rate path, and upcoming U.S. labor/inflation data will be central to the next impulse in EUR/USD over the coming sessions. The base case for today is that the euro holds much of Friday’s gains amid lower U.S. yields and sustained expectations for an approaching Fed pivot.
Trade idea: BUY 1.1575, SL 1.1525, TP 1.1665
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