USDJPY: SELL 148.80, SL 149.00, TP 147.80 | 01 Agosto 2025

Event to watch for today:

09:30 EET.JPY – Bank of Japan Press Conference

15:30 EET.USD – Initial Jobless Claims

15:30 EET.USD – Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index

USDJPY:

The pair is pulling back as investors take profits ahead of the upcoming Fed and Bank of Japan meetings. The yield on the 10-year UST has retreated to 4.32% after rising above 4.45%, easing the pressure on the yen.

Exclusive for our readers – a 202% bonus for deposits from $202! Enter promo code PROFIT202 in customer support and trade with TRIPLED capital. Details about the promotion via link.

Expectations of a policy shift by the BoJ are supporting the JPY: inflation remains above 3% y/y for the fourth consecutive month, while April wage negotiations recorded a median wage increase of 3.9% – the highest in 31 years. The market is pricing in the possibility of the first move toward normalization – a widening of the JGB yield curve band – which limits the potential for further USDJPY gains.

Additional factors include geopolitical risks: increasing tensions in the Taiwan Strait are boosting demand for safe-haven assets, including the yen. At the same time, verbal intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance is possible as the pair approaches 150.00, which is also cooling bullish sentiment.

The main risk to the short position is a more hawkish stance from the Fed, which could drive UST yields higher and push the pair toward 150.00 again. For now, the balance of factors points to a likely pullback toward 147.50.

Trade recommendation: SELL 148.80, SL 149.00, TP 147.80

Our company provides an opportunity to earn income not only from your trading. By attracting clients within the affiliate program, you can get up to $30 per lot!